Fuel Price Report: Diesel Falls 18 Cents to $6.20 but Still Runs $2.49 Above Last Year

Diesel fell 18 cents to $6.20 a gallon and gasoline fell 11 cents to $4.50, EIA said. With 12 weeks left in the calendar year, fleets are paying $1.16 a gallon more than this year's average to date.

October 6, 2026 · MPF Staff

Retail prices for the week ending Oct. 5 · Wholesale as of Sept. 29 · Brent as of Sept. 29 · Outlook published Sept. 9 · Alternative fuels for April 2026

U.S. retail, weekly, past 12 months

Diesel $6.20 and gasoline $4.50; diesel is 33 cents below the year’s high of $6.53 and $1.16 above the $5.04 average for the year so far.

MPF

The national diesel and gasoline averages against this year’s markers.

Key takeaways this week

Diesel: The national average fell 18 cents to $6.20 a gallon, 33 cents below the year’s high of $6.53 but $2.49 above the same week last year, a 67% rise.
Gasoline: Down 11 cents to $4.50, which leaves diesel $1.70 a gallon dearer than gasoline.
Regions: Diesel fell in all eight EIA regions. California is $8.08, the Lower Atlantic $5.70, a $2.38 spread.
Bulk buyers: New York Harbor wholesale diesel was $5.00 a gallon on Sept. 29, $1.20 below the national pump average.
CNG and propane: In DOE’s April report CNG averaged $3.48 per diesel-gallon equivalent against diesel at $5.55 in that same report; propane was $5.53, within 2 cents of diesel on an energy basis.
Why: EIA expects the U.S. diesel stockpile to stay below its five-year low through much of 2027 and has raised its 2026 retail diesel forecast to $5.07 a gallon.

The U.S. average price of on-highway diesel was $6.199 a gallon for the week ending Oct. 5, down 18.3 cents, EIA said. Regular gasoline averaged $4.496, down 10.7 cents. Diesel is $2.49 above the same week a year ago, a 67% rise, and $1.70 above gasoline. It is 33 cents below this year’s high of $6.53, and $1.16 above the $5.04 average for the year so far.

Brent crude, the world oil price that U.S. fuel prices follow, was $113.96 a barrel on Sept. 29, down 93 cents on the week. EIA said in its Sept. 9 outlook that global oil prices rose to an average of $91 a barrel in August, $7 higher than July, and that global oil inventories have fallen by 400 million barrels this year. It expects inventories to keep falling through the end of 2026 and prices to stay near the August average in the coming months.

Why it is diesel that hurts

Diesel belongs to a refinery category called distillate, which covers diesel fuel and heating oil. EIA forecast on Sept. 9 that U.S. distillate inventories would drop below 100 million barrels in September and stay below the five-year low, measured across 2021 through 2025, through much of 2027. It said tightness in the global distillate market had raised U.S. prices and given U.S. refiners an incentive to export more, and that global distillate production would stay below last year’s levels in the coming months.

The refiner margin on diesel, the gap between the cost of crude and the value of the fuel made from it, is forecast to average $1.57 a gallon in 2026, 20.8% above EIA’s August forecast, and $1.25 in 2027, 28.5% above it. EIA raised its 2026 retail diesel forecast to $5.07 a gallon from $4.85 and its 2027 forecast to $4.40 from $4.07. Weekly stock detail now takes more digging: EIA discontinued the Weekly Petroleum Status Report highlights PDF effective Sept. 23, 2026, and publishes the figures on its weekly supply page instead.

What this means for public fleets

If you built this year’s budget on the year-to-date average, check the last quarter separately. Diesel has averaged $5.04 a gallon so far in 2026, but this week’s $6.20 is $1.16 higher, and 12 weeks remain in the calendar year. EIA’s own 2026 full-year forecast is $5.07.

If you have tank capacity, weigh this week’s fall against the forecast before you fill. An 18.3-cent drop is worth $18,300 a year on 100,000 gallons if it holds. But EIA’s Sept. 9 outlook has retail diesel averaging $4.40 in 2027, below today’s price, so storing fuel now buys price certainty and carries the risk of holding costlier gallons.

Where it hurts most

Retail prices by region

California diesel is $8.08 and the Lower Atlantic is $5.70; California gasoline is $6.34 and the Gulf Coast is $4.01.

MPF

Diesel fell in all eight, from $8.08 in California to $5.70 in the Lower Atlantic, a $2.38 spread. Gasoline fell everywhere but California, where it rose 3.5 cents to $6.34, and is cheapest on the Gulf Coast at $4.01.

Diesel fell in all eight regions EIA tracks. California is the most expensive at $8.08 a gallon, down 9.9 cents. The Lower Atlantic, the Southeast from Virginia to Florida, is the cheapest at $5.70, down 25.4 cents, the week’s largest decline. The spread between the two is $2.38. In between, the West Coast excluding California and the Central Atlantic are both at $6.49, New England is $6.48, the Midwest $6.29 after a 24-cent fall, the Rocky Mountain region $6.27 and the Gulf Coast $5.82.

Gasoline fell everywhere except California, where it rose 3.5 cents to $6.34. The Lower Atlantic moved most again, down 23.3 cents to $4.07, and the Midwest fell 18.2 cents to $4.20. The Gulf Coast is cheapest at $4.01. EIA groups states into districts it calls PADDs, a numbering scheme left from wartime fuel rationing. We use the plain regional names here.

What bulk buyers are paying

What a bulk buyer sees vs. the pump

Diesel is $1.70 a gallon above gasoline at the pump and $1.20 above New York Harbor wholesale diesel of $5.00.

MPF

Wholesale diesel at New York Harbor, the spot price for fuel sold for immediate delivery in the main East Coast market, was $5.00 a gallon on Sept. 29, down 0.8 cent. The national pump average is $1.20 above that. The gap covers federal and state fuel taxes, delivery and the retailer’s margin, so a fleet loading at a terminal rack avoids part of it but never the taxes. A fleet buying 100,000 gallons a year would save $18,300 if this week’s 18.3-cent drop held for a full year. Wholesale propane at Mont Belvieu, Texas, the main U.S. trading hub, was 89.4 cents a gallon, a benchmark rather than a delivered price.

What this means for public fleets

If you buy most of your fuel on cards, re-run the bulk math at this week’s numbers. The pump average is $1.20 above New York Harbor wholesale diesel of $5.00 a gallon. Taxes and delivery account for part of that gap, so the saving at a terminal rack is smaller than $1.20 and worth pricing against your own volume.

If a rack contract renews this quarter, read the forecast before you fix a price. EIA raised its 2026 retail diesel forecast to $5.07 a gallon from $4.85 on Sept. 9, and its 2027 forecast to $4.40 from $4.07. A long fixed price protects against a further rise and locks you in above the level EIA expects next year.

The trend: 3, 6 and 9 months

The trend

Diesel is up 35% in three months and 65% in 12; gasoline 15% and 38%; wholesale diesel 52% and 109%; Brent at $113.96 a barrel is up 62% and 65%.

MPF

Percentage change over three, six, nine and 12 months for retail diesel, retail gasoline, New York Harbor wholesale diesel and Brent crude. Wholesale diesel has risen fastest, 109% in a year, while Brent is down 10% over six months.

Diesel is up 35% over three months, 9.9% over six, 78% over nine and 65% over 12, EIA data show. The six-month figure is the one worth a second look: because the three-month rise is far larger, prices were lower three months ago than six months ago, then climbed hard. Gasoline is up 15% over three months and 38% over 12. Wholesale diesel at New York Harbor has outrun both, up 52% in three months and 109% in a year. Brent crude is $113.96 a barrel, up 62% over three months but down 10% over six. Crude alone does not account for diesel.

CNG, propane and the other fuels

Alternative fuels at retail, April 2026

In DOE’s April 2026 report, per diesel-gallon equivalent: CNG $3.48, LNG $4.81, E85 $4.86, B20 $5.41, propane $5.53, diesel $5.55 and B99/B100 $5.80.

MPF

DOE publishes alternative fuel prices quarterly, and its latest report covers April 2026, so those figures compare only with the diesel and gasoline in that same report. On a diesel-gallon equivalent basis, which puts fuels on the same energy footing, CNG averaged $3.48 in DOE’s April report against diesel at $5.55, a gap of $2.07. LNG was $4.81 and E85 $4.86, 74 cents and 69 cents under that diesel figure. B20 was $5.41 and B99/B100 $5.80. Propane at retail was $5.53, within 2 cents of diesel on energy, so propane’s saving comes from the supply contract, not the pump.

What this means for public fleets

If you run CNG, the number to price now is your station cost against your own diesel contract. In DOE’s April report CNG averaged $3.48 per diesel-gallon equivalent against diesel at $5.55 in that same report. The regional figures in that report ranged from $3.02 in the Lower Atlantic to $4.55 in New England, so the comparison is local and worth running on your own invoices.

If you already run propane, look at the supply agreement rather than the retail price. In DOE’s April report retail propane was $5.53 per diesel-gallon equivalent against diesel at $5.55 in that same report, 2 cents apart on an energy basis. That is parity at retail, which makes the contract terms the only place a saving can come from, and worth pricing against your current supplier.

What to watch this week, and what it tells you

Every weekday

New York Harbor wholesale diesel

It barely moved last week, down 0.8 cent to $5.00 a gallon, while the pump fell 18.3 cents. Wholesale usually turns before retail, so a sustained move here is the earliest signal for your rack price.
Monday, 5 p.m. ET

EIA’s weekly pump prices

Watch whether diesel’s decline extends. A second drop the size of this week’s would put the national average at about $6.02 a gallon.
Wednesday, 10:30 a.m. ET

EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

EIA discontinued the highlights PDF effective Sept. 23, 2026, so the diesel stockpile figures are in the data tables on its weekly supply page. The line to watch is 100 million barrels, which EIA said inventories would fall below in September.
Tuesday, Oct. 6

EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook

The September edition put retail diesel at $5.07 a gallon for 2026 and $4.40 for 2027. Another increase would weaken the case for fixing a long price now. EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook follows on Oct. 15.

Glossary: how to read fuel prices

This note runs with every Fleet Fuel Price Report because these prices measure different things, and a buying decision made off the wrong one is expensive.

Retail: The pump price. EIA surveys stations every Monday. It includes federal and state taxes, freight to the station and the retailer’s margin, and it lags the wholesale market by one to two weeks. It is what a fleet pays on a fuel card, and it is the number most news reports quote.
Wholesale, or spot: Today’s price for a large lot of fuel at a trading hub: New York Harbor, the Gulf Coast or Los Angeles. EIA publishes it every business day. Rack prices and most supply contracts are set off it, and it is the earliest public signal of where the pump is heading.
Futures: A price agreed today for delivery in a future month, traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The nearest month tracks spot. The useful part is the shape of the curve: when later months are cheaper than the front month, the market expects today’s tightness to ease; when later months cost more, it expects the opposite. A fleet does not buy futures, but a fixed-price or capped supply contract is priced off them, so the curve is what your supplier is looking at when it quotes one. Futures settlements are published by CME Group and are not free to republish, which is why they are described here rather than charted.
Bulk: What a fleet pays a supplier for delivery to its own tanks. It is usually a published rack price, most often OPIS, plus or minus a differential and freight, or spot plus a differential. It excludes station margin, and for state and local governments it usually excludes the 24.4-cent federal excise tax on diesel and the 18.4-cent tax on gasoline, along with state fuel tax where the state exempts government use. Rack prices are proprietary, so there is no public bulk series. The gap between spot and retail is the closest public measure of what a bulk buyer avoids.
Brent crude: The price of a barrel of oil from the North Sea, used worldwide as the reference price for crude. Diesel and gasoline are made from crude, so when Brent moves, wholesale fuel follows within days and the pump within weeks. It is quoted in dollars per barrel; a barrel is 42 gallons.
Energy-equivalent prices: A gallon of propane, E85 or CNG does not hold a gallon of diesel’s energy, so DOE also states alternative fuel prices per gasoline-gallon equivalent (GGE) and per diesel-gallon equivalent (DGE). That is the price of the same amount of work, and it is the only fair way to compare a CNG or propane quote with a diesel one. The alternative fuels chart in this report uses it.
What it means for buyers: Watch spot for direction: a rising spot price this week is a higher pump price next week, and vice versa. Use the curve for planning: when later months are much cheaper, locking in long at today’s price is expensive insurance; when the curve is flat or rising, a fixed-price contract costs less to get. And judge any supplier quote against spot plus freight, never against the pump.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (Oct 2026), Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, Spot Prices, Weekly Petroleum Status Report and Short-Term Energy Outlook; U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Fuel Price Report (April 2026); IRS Publication 510. EIA and DOE data are U.S. government works in the public domain. Charts by Modern Public Fleet from those sources.