Weekly Fuel Strategy Report
Weekly diesel, gasoline, wholesale and alternative fuel prices for public fleets, built from U.S. Energy Information Administration and Department of Energy data. Updated every Tuesday.
Fuel Strategy Report: Diesel Rises to $6.35 as Wholesale Jumps 15 Cents
Retail diesel added 7.6 cents while regular gasoline slipped, leaving diesel $2.08 a gallon above gasoline. Fleets that budgeted at this year's average are now a dollar a gallon behind with nine weeks to run.
Retail prices as of Oct. 26 · Wholesale and Brent crude as of Oct. 20 · Alternative fuels for July 2026 · Forecasts from the Oct. 6 Short-Term Energy Outlook
- Diesel: The national average is $6.35 a gallon, up 7.6 cents on the week and $2.63 above a year ago. It sits 18 cents below this year’s high of $6.53.
- Gasoline: Regular gasoline slipped 1.5 cents to $4.27, up $1.23 from a year ago. It fell in seven of eight regions, the Midwest being the exception at up 12.4 cents.
- Regions: California diesel is $8.16 after an 8.7-cent fall, still $2.27 above the cheapest region, the Lower Atlantic at $5.89, which rose 15 cents. The Midwest rose 12.8 cents to $6.48.
- Bulk buyers: New York Harbor wholesale diesel was $5.27 on Oct. 20, up 15.1 cents, twice the pump’s rise. The pump average is $1.09 above wholesale.
- CNG and propane: In DOE’s July report CNG averaged $3.50 per diesel-gallon equivalent against diesel at $4.86 in that same report. Propane was $5.47 per diesel-gallon equivalent, above diesel on an energy basis.
- Why: EIA said East Coast diesel stockpiles were 32% below their five-year average in September and will stay about 20% below through winter. Brent crude is $115.22 a barrel, down $10.56 on the week.
U.S. retail diesel averaged $6.352 a gallon in the week ending Oct. 26, up 7.6 cents, the Energy Information Administration said. Regular gasoline averaged $4.269, down 1.5 cents. That leaves diesel $2.08 a gallon above gasoline. A year ago diesel was $3.72, so a diesel fleet is paying $2.63 more a gallon than last October. This week’s price is 18 cents below the year’s high of $6.53 and $1.23 above the year-to-date average of $5.13.
EIA put the rise down to crude oil and refining. In its Oct. 6 Short-Term Energy Outlook the agency raised its forecast for Brent crude, the world oil price that U.S. fuel prices follow, to an average $105 a barrel for the fourth quarter, $14 higher than it forecast a month earlier. Pump prices rose sharply in September on higher crude and wider crack spreads, the margin refiners earn turning a barrel of crude into fuel, EIA said. Diesel averaged $6.29 a gallon in September and gasoline $4.35.
Why it is diesel that hurts
Diesel is short where it is used most. East Coast stocks of distillate, the fuel family that covers both diesel and home heating oil, fell 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September, EIA said. The agency expects them to recover only slowly and to stay about 20% below the 2021 to 2025 average through this winter, reaching something close to normal in the second half of next year. EIA also said tightness in diesel markets is itself pushing crude prices up, because refiners buy more crude to chase diesel output.
Winter adds a second claim on the same barrels. EIA said heating oil prices are more than 30% above last winter for the Northeast households that burn it. The agency’s own forecast has retail diesel averaging $5.19 a gallon across 2026 and $4.49 in 2027, so it expects this to ease, but not within this budget year. EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report figures were not available for this edition, so the inventory and refining picture above comes from the Oct. 6 outlook.
If you set this year’s diesel budget at the year-to-date average, re-check the last nine weeks. Diesel is $6.35 against a year-to-date average of $5.13, a gap of $1.23 a gallon. On 50,000 gallons bought over the nine weeks left in the year, that gap is about $61,000 more than an average-price budget assumed.
If you have tank capacity and a rack contract, weigh topping up against the forecast. Wholesale diesel rose 15.1 cents last week while the pump rose 7.6 cents, so retail has room to catch up. The trade-off is that EIA’s Oct. 6 outlook has retail diesel averaging about $4.50 a gallon next year, so gallons stored now could sit in the tank at above-market cost.
Where it hurts most
California still has the most expensive diesel in the country at $8.16 a gallon, even after falling 8.7 cents. The cheapest is the Lower Atlantic, the Southeast from Virginia to Florida, at $5.89, a gap of $2.27. Direction split this week. Diesel rose in the Lower Atlantic, up 15 cents, the Midwest, up 12.8 cents to $6.48, the Rocky Mountain region, up 9.9 cents to $6.52, and the Gulf Coast, up 4.8 cents to $5.95. It fell in California, the West Coast excluding California, down 4.5 cents to $6.61, New England, down 4.9 cents to $6.42, and the Central Atlantic, down 1.2 cents to $6.50.
Regular gasoline moved the other way almost everywhere. It fell in seven of the eight regions, most in California, down 14.3 cents to $5.89, and the West Coast excluding California, down 13.9 cents to $4.87. The Gulf Coast is cheapest at $3.70, down 8.2 cents. The Midwest was the lone riser, up 12.4 cents to $4.27, which happens to match the national average exactly. A Midwest fleet therefore saw both fuels rise about 12 cents in the same week.
What bulk buyers are paying
Wholesale diesel at New York Harbor, the spot price, meaning the price for immediate delivery at that trading hub, was $5.27 a gallon on Oct. 20, up 15.1 cents. The national pump average is $1.09 above it. That gap is the retail layer: station margin, card fees and local costs. A fleet buying on a rack contract, the truck-loading price at a terminal, pays taxes, delivery and fees as separate lines instead and avoids most of that margin, but it also absorbs wholesale moves faster, as this week showed. EIA’s propane benchmark at Mont Belvieu, Texas, printed $1.133 a gallon on Oct. 20, the number many propane supply contracts index to.
If you buy part of your gallons on fuel cards, put the card price next to a rack invoice this month. The pump average is $1.09 above New York Harbor wholesale, $6.35 against $5.27 on Oct. 20. Card gallons carry that retail layer on every fill, which is the number to weigh against the cost of running your own tanks.
If your supply contract is indexed to a wholesale benchmark, confirm how often it resets. New York Harbor diesel rose 15.1 cents to $5.27 in the week to Oct. 20 and is up 135% over 12 months, while Brent fell $10.56 to $115.22, so the refining margin widened. A weekly reset passes that through faster than a monthly one, in both directions.
The trend: 3, 6 and 9 months
Diesel is up 19.6% over three months, 18.7% over six, 75.3% over nine and 75% over 12. The near-identical three and six-month figures say most of the damage landed in the last quarter. Regular gasoline is up 4.2% over three months and 41% over 12, which is why the diesel-to-gasoline gap is $2.08. Wholesale diesel at New York Harbor has run furthest, up 27.2% in three months and 135.3% in 12. Brent crude, the world oil price that U.S. fuel prices follow, is $115.22 a barrel, down $10.56 on the week, up 22.8% in three months and 89.8% in 12. Crude fell last week; diesel did not.
CNG, propane and the other fuels
All of these are DOE’s quarterly Alternative Fuel Price Report for July 2026, and all comparisons here are per diesel-gallon equivalent, the amount of each fuel holding the energy of a gallon of diesel. In that report CNG averaged $3.50 against diesel at $4.86, a $1.36 advantage, or 28%. LNG was $4.78. Propane was $5.47, above diesel in the same report, so at retail propane is near diesel on an energy basis and the saving sits in the supply contract rather than the posted price. B20 biodiesel matched diesel at $4.86, while B99 and B100 cost $5.96. E85 was $4.33 against gasoline at $4.34 in that report, essentially level.
If you are costing a CNG station or renewing a gas supply deal, start from the regional figures, not the national one. In DOE’s July report CNG ranged from $2.85 per diesel-gallon equivalent in the Rocky Mountain region to $4.70 in New England, against a $3.50 national average. Those are July figures, so they are worth pricing against the quote your own gas utility will give you now.
If you already run propane, the number to check is your contract formula, not the retail average. In DOE’s July report propane cost $5.47 per diesel-gallon equivalent against diesel at $4.86 in the same report, so retail propane was not the cheaper fuel per unit of energy. Ask your supplier what index and differential your gallons price off, and compare that with your delivered diesel cost.
What to watch this week, and what it tells you
-
Every weekdayEIA’s New York Harbor diesel spot price
It rose 15.1 cents to $5.27 in the week to Oct. 20 while the pump rose 7.6 cents. When wholesale leads by that much, retail usually follows within a week or two.
-
Monday, 5 p.m. ETEIA’s weekly retail pump prices
Watch whether diesel closes the 18 cents between $6.35 and this year’s high of $6.53, and whether the Midwest repeats last week’s 12.8-cent rise.
-
Wednesday, 10:30 a.m. ETEIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
East Coast diesel stockpiles were 32% below their five-year average in September, EIA said. A rebuild there would be the first sign the squeeze is easing.
-
Nov. 10EIA’s next Short-Term Energy Outlook
The Oct. 6 edition put Brent at $105 a barrel for the fourth quarter and retail diesel near $4.50 a gallon next year. If those are raised again, next year’s budget assumption moves with them.
Glossary: how to read fuel prices
This note runs with every Fleet Fuel Price Report because these prices measure different things, and a buying decision made off the wrong one is expensive.
- Retail
- The pump price. EIA surveys stations every Monday. It includes federal and state taxes, freight to the station and the retailer’s margin, and it lags the wholesale market by one to two weeks. It is what a fleet pays on a fuel card, and it is the number most news reports quote.
- Wholesale, or spot
- Today’s price for a large lot of fuel at a trading hub: New York Harbor, the Gulf Coast or Los Angeles. EIA publishes it every business day. Rack prices and most supply contracts are set off it, and it is the earliest public signal of where the pump is heading.
- Futures
- A price agreed today for delivery in a future month, traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The nearest month tracks spot. The useful part is the shape of the curve: when later months are cheaper than the front month, the market expects today’s tightness to ease; when later months cost more, it expects the opposite. A fleet does not buy futures, but a fixed-price or capped supply contract is priced off them, so the curve is what your supplier is looking at when it quotes one. Futures settlements are published by CME Group and are not free to republish, which is why they are described here rather than charted.
- Bulk
- What a fleet pays a supplier for delivery to its own tanks. It is usually a published rack price, most often OPIS, plus or minus a differential and freight, or spot plus a differential. It excludes station margin, and for state and local governments it usually excludes the 24.4-cent federal excise tax on diesel and the 18.4-cent tax on gasoline, along with state fuel tax where the state exempts government use. Rack prices are proprietary, so there is no public bulk series. The gap between spot and retail is the closest public measure of what a bulk buyer avoids.
- Brent crude
- The price of a barrel of oil from the North Sea, used worldwide as the reference price for crude. Diesel and gasoline are made from crude, so when Brent moves, wholesale fuel follows within days and the pump within weeks. It is quoted in dollars per barrel; a barrel is 42 gallons.
- Energy-equivalent prices
- A gallon of propane, E85 or CNG does not hold a gallon of diesel’s energy, so DOE also states alternative fuel prices per gasoline-gallon equivalent (GGE) and per diesel-gallon equivalent (DGE). That is the price of the same amount of work, and it is the only fair way to compare a CNG or propane quote with a diesel one. The alternative fuels chart in this report uses it.
- What it means for buyers
- Watch spot for direction: a rising spot price this week is a higher pump price next week, and vice versa. Use the curve for planning: when later months are much cheaper, locking in long at today’s price is expensive insurance; when the curve is flat or rising, a fixed-price contract costs less to get. And judge any supplier quote against spot plus freight, never against the pump.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (Oct 2026), Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, Spot Prices, Weekly Petroleum Status Report and Short-Term Energy Outlook; U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Fuel Price Report (July 2026); IRS Publication 510. EIA and DOE data are U.S. government works in the public domain. Charts by Modern Public Fleet from those sources.
Past reports
- Fuel Strategy Report: Diesel Rises to $6.35 as Wholesale Jumps 15 Cents current
- Fuel Price Report: Diesel Climbs to $6.28 as Gasoline Slips to $4.42
- Fuel Price Report: Diesel at $6.18 as Wholesale Diesel Falls 29 Cents in a Week
- Fuel Price Report: Diesel Falls 18 Cents to $6.20 but Still Runs $2.49 Above Last Year
- Fuel Price Report: Diesel Falls 15 Cents to $6.38 and Still Runs 70% Above Last Year
- Fuel Price Report: Diesel Hits $6.53, the Year’s High, as Wholesale Jumps 69 Cents
- Fuel Price Report: Diesel Hits $5.97, a 2026 High, as the Middle East Squeeze Tightens Supply